Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 牌塔PTM店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 16.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |